China's Geoeconomic Interests In The Us Via Byd's Export To Mexico, 2022-2024

Authors

  • Evan Andhika Suci UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Rahmi Fitriyanti UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Agus Nilmada Azmi UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v5i8.3749

Keywords:

geoeconomics, party-state capitalism, geoeconomic bridging node, BYD, US-China rivalry

Abstract

The electric vehicle sector is a primary arena for geoeconomic competition between the United States and China. This study analyzes China's geoeconomic interests by examining the export strategy of the electric vehicle manufacturer BYD into Mexico from 2022 to 2024. Using a descriptive qualitative method with a case study design, this research determines that Mexico currently fulfills only two of the three structural elements of a geoeconomic bridging node. Contextual positioning is achieved through USMCA membership, and Mexico has consistently attracted Chinese foreign direct investment, but coupling practices are constrained by strict rules of origin and the Inflation Reduction Act's Foreign Entity of Concern exclusion. The third element, strategic relational proximity, is fragile: in April 2024, the Mexican federal government halted incentives for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers following direct demands from the United States Trade Representative. BYD's export expansion is a rational corporate response to domestic overcapacity and international tariff barriers rather than a mandate from Beijing, though the framework of party-state capitalism shows that BYD's commercial success advances China's broader geoeconomic interests. These findings test the limits of the bridging node concept in Latin America when confronted with the defensive mechanisms of a hegemonic state.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. Harvard University Press.

Blanchard, J.-M. F. (2019). The politics of Latin America’s investment and other links with China: Contextualizing the region’s cash chasing while racking richer research rewards. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(4), 565–582. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-018-09585-9

Bowdle, K., & Kamal, F. (2025). The invisible tariff: Compliance costs of USMCA rules of origin. Federal Reserve Board.

Congressional Research Service. (2026). USMCA: Motor vehicle rules of origin. CRS Reports.

Correa da Cunha, H., Singh, V., Amal, M., Farrell, C., Mangal, S., & Grellmann, G. (2026). The impact of US and China geopolitical risk on foreign direct investment in Latin America. International Business Review, 35(1), 102533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2025.102533

Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2018). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.1163/22118993-90000268

Creswell, J. W., & Poth, C. N. (2024). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches (5th ed.). SAGE Publications.

Doan, B. T. (2025). Impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnam’s import and export. Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management, 10(46s), 907–914. https://doi.org/10.52783/jisem.v10i46s.9058

Espinoza, A., & Espinoza-Oliva, M. L. (2025). Exploring perceptions: Why do Mexican consumers buy Chinese cars? Cureus Journal of Business and Economics, 2, e09577. https://doi.org/10.7759/s44404-025-09577-y

Gachuz-Maya, J. C., & Urdinez, F. (2022). Geopolitics and geoeconomics in the China–Latin American relations in the context of the US–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 51(1), 3–12. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681026221098770

Gerbaudo, P. (2025, April 24). Global BYD: The international export of Chinese electric vehicles. Phenomenal World.

Güneylioğlu, M. (2023). Globalization, deglobalization, and the US-China competition: The balance between geopolitics and geoeconomics. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 89–113.

Hayakawa, K., & Sudsawasd, S. (2024). Tariff evasion through third countries: Evidence from Thailand. Asian Economic Journal, 38(1), 45–67.

Inter-American Dialogue. (2024). China’s investment in Latin America: The offshore route. Inter-American Dialogue Reports.

Irfan, D., & Tang, X. (2026). Global implications of China’s EV dominance: Assessing benefits, supply chain risks, and market concentration. World Electric Vehicle Journal, 17(3), 134. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj17030134

Iyoha, E., Malesky, E., Wen, J., & Wu, S.-J. (2024). Exports in disguise? Trade rerouting during the US–China trade war. Harvard Business School.

Kennedy, S. (2024, June 20). The Chinese EV dilemma: Subsidized yet striking. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Li, M. (2025). After the subsidies: EVs and lessons from China’s industrial policy. The Diplomat.

Lin, L., & Milhaupt, C. J. (2013). We are the (national) champions: Understanding the mechanisms of state capitalism in China. Stanford Law Review, 65(4), 697–759.

Liou, C.-S. (2025). China’s economic statecraft and the perceptions of its leaders: A neoclassical realist explanation. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 26(2), 89–105. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109925000040

Liu, L., Gözgör, G., Mahalik, M. K., & Pal, S. (2025). The impact of the US-China tensions on FDI dynamics in emerging economies. Finance Research Letters, 78, 107255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107255

Martínez, N., & Terrazas-Santamaría, D. (2024). Beyond nearshoring: The political economy of Mexico’s emerging electric vehicle industry. Energy Policy, 195(114385). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114385

Mayr, S., Musitz, L., Papatheophilou, S., Raza, W., Tröster, B., & Wuttke, T. (2026). Industrial overcapacities, with a focus on China. European Parliament, Directorate-General for External Policies.

Meyer, A., Goh, D., & Hanemann, T. (2024). A closing back door? China’s evolving FDI presence in Mexico. Rhodium Group.

Morales-Fajardo, M. E., & Franzoni, M. (2024). Navigating U.S.–China trade war: Mexico’s economic diplomacy in perspective. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 10(3), 271–291. https://doi.org/10.1142/S237774002450012X

Nelson, H. (2025, January 29). What China’s BYD really wants from EV investments in Mexico. Atlantic Council.

Oré, D. (2024, April 18). Exclusive: Mexico, facing US pressure, will halt incentives to Chinese EV makers. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mexico-facing-us-pressure-will-halt-incentives-chinese-ev-makers-2024-04-18/

Pearson, M. M., Rithmire, M., & Tsai, K. S. (2021). Party-state capitalism in China. Current History, 120(827), 207–213.

Raul, N., Ogunsowo, O., & Schaefer, K. A. (2026). Impacts of U.S. tariffs on electric vehicle imports from China. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 5(1), 35–45. https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.70036

Sanchez-Lopez, M. D. (2023). Geopolitics of the Li-ion battery value chain and the Lithium Triangle in South America. Latin American Policy, 14(1), 22–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/lamp.12285

Shepardson, D. (2024, September 12). US House passes bill targeting China that would limit EV tax credits. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-passes-bill-targeting-china-that-would-limit-ev-tax-credits-2024-09-12/

Sweidan, O. D. (2024). The geopolitics of technology: Evidence from the interaction between the United States and China. Russian Journal of Economics, 10(2), 130–150. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.10.118505

Takahashi, T. (2023). China’s foreign policy. IDE-JETRO.

Umar, R., & Yang, S. (2025). Geoeconomic bridging nodes: Chinese EV battery investments in Morocco. Global Policy, 16(1), 45–61.

U.S. International Trade Commission. (2025). USMCA automotive rules of origin: Economic impact and operation, 2025 report. U.S. International Trade Commission.

USITC. (2024). Chinese automotive investments in Mexico. United States International Trade Commission.

Utar, H., Cebreros Zurita, A., & Torres Ruiz, L. B. (2025). The US–China trade war and the relocation of global value chains to Mexico. The Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01682

Wang, H. (2026). Geopolitics, domestic political economy and the rise of localization policies in the global EV industry. Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

Zámborský, P., Yan, Z. J., Michailova, S., & Zhuang, V. (2023). Chinese multinationals’ internationalization strategies: New realities, new pathways. California Management Review, 66(1), 96–123. https://doi.org/10.1177/00081256231193467

Zelicovich, J. (2024). Latin American involvement in the 21st century geoeconomic turn: A qualitative comparative analysis. Politics and Governance, 12, 8041. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.8041

Downloads

Published

2026-08-30

How to Cite

Suci, E. A., Fitriyanti, R., & Azmi, A. N. (2026). China’s Geoeconomic Interests In The Us Via Byd’s Export To Mexico, 2022-2024. JURNAL ECONOMINA, 5(8), 5428–5443. https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v5i8.3749