PENERAPAN METODE FACEBOOK PROPHET UNTUK MERAMALKAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG TRANS METRO BANDUNG KORIDOR 1

Farhan Bagus Prakoso; Gumgum Darmawan; Achmad Bachrudin

doi:10.55681/armada.v1i3.416

Authors

Farhan Bagus Prakoso Universitas Padjadjaran
Gumgum Darmawan Universitas Padjadjaran
Achmad Bachrudin Universitas Padjadjaran

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55681/armada.v1i3.416

Keywords:

Facebook Prophet, Peramalan, Trans Metro Bandung

Abstract

Trans Metro Bandung (TMB) menjadi salah satu pilihan transportasi umum yang cukup populer di Bandung raya, hal ini dikarenakan harganya yang relatif murah dan cakupan rute yang luas. Pada bulan April 2020 jumlah penumpang TMB koridor 1 mengalami penurunan yang signifikan akibat pandemi COVID-19. Selain itu, faktor pemberhentian operasional Damri dan faktor hari libur menjadi faktor penyebab fluktuasi jumlah penumpang TMB. Oleh karena itu diperlukan sebuah model yang dapat mengakomodir pengaruh faktor tersebut untuk meramalkan jumlah penumpang TMB. Model Facebook Prophet menjadi salah satu model peramalan populer yang memilki tingkat akurasi dan fleksibilitas yang tinggi. Oleh karena itu, peramalan jumlah penumpang bulanan Trans Metro Bandung koridor 1 pada penelitian ini menggunakan model Facebook Prophet. Dalam penelitian ini, model Facebook Prophet menghasilkan akurasi peramalan yang sangat baik dengan MAPE testing sebesar 4,62% dengan coverage sebesar 0,89. Hasil peramalan jumlah penumpang TMB untuk enam bulan ke depan memiliki hasil yang berfluktuasi. Nilai terendah terjadi pada bulan Januari 2023 dan tertinggi pada bulan Agustus 2022.

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